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Losing Streak & Drawdown Simulator

Even a real edge loses for long stretches. Simulate thousands of betting runs from your own win rate, odds and stake size to see how deep drawdowns and losing streaks can go. It is a simulation, not a forecast.

Assumptions

Your own estimate per bet

Stake style

Simulation results

Simulation · not a forecast

Set your assumptions and run the simulation.

How this works

Model: each bet is independent, won with your win probability at your average price (a textbook Monte Carlo). Fixed-dollar stakes stay the same; fixed-% stakes are a percentage of the current bankroll after every bet. A run stops if the bankroll can no longer cover a fixed stake.

Expected ROI per bet = p × (decimal − 1) − (1 − p). Expected profit (fixed stakes) = bets × stake × expected ROI.

Drawdown is measured from the starting bankroll: a 20% drawdown means the bankroll fell to 80% of where it began at some point in the run. Losing streak = consecutive losses within a run.

Reproducible: every run uses a seeded random generator (mulberry32). The seed is shown; the same inputs and seed always give the same result. “Run again” uses a new seed, so numbers move slightly — that movement is simulation noise.

Limits keep your browser responsive: up to 1,000 bets × 5,000 simulations. Nothing you enter is sent or stored.

Questions

Why do losing streaks happen if I have an edge?
At around 52–55% win rates, a 7–10 bet losing streak somewhere in a few hundred bets is normal. An edge changes the long-run average, not the short-run swings.
Why does fixed-% staking never go broke?
Each stake shrinks as the bankroll shrinks, so the bankroll approaches zero without reaching it — but the drawdowns can still be deep.

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Losing Streak & Drawdown Simulator — Bankroll Variance · OutpriceTheBook