The 0-5 Start

Five games, five losses. Tennessee opened at home against the Jets and Eagles, went on the road to the Giants and Ravens, and came home to face Houston. It lost all five.

Some of those losses look close on paper. Philadelphia won on a touchdown pass with nine seconds left. The Giants won by five. That is the version of 0-5 that sounds like bad luck.

The rest of the picture doesn't support it. The Titans scored 58 points in five games, 11.6 per game and the fewest in the NFL. They never scored more than 20 in a game. They were outscored by 51.

The first five games

OutpriceTheBook · Analysis

Three one-score losses, and still outscored by 51

  1. Wk 1vs JetsSep 13L 10–23-13 · total -13
  2. Wk 2vs EaglesSep 20L 20–24-4 · total -17Eagles TD pass with 0:09 left
  3. Wk 3at GiantsSep 27L 7–12-5 · total -22Titans went nearly 55 minutes without a point
  4. Wk 4at RavensOct 4L 18–24-6 · total -28Trailed 24-7 at halftime
  5. Wk 5vs TexansOct 11L 3–26-23 · total -51Only points: an opening-drive field goal

Scored 58Allowed 109Differential -51Per game 11.6–21.8

Source: FantasyData and Fox Sports box scores; TennesseeTitans.com postgame notes

A close final score is not the same as a competitive game. In Baltimore, Tennessee trailed 24-7 at halftime before scoring 11 unanswered points after the break. Across all five games the Titans scored three points in second quarters. Opponents scored 49.

This 0-5 isn't hiding a good team. If anything, the record is the kindest number on the page.
— OutpriceTheBook

The Houston Embarrassment

Week 5 showed the whole problem in one afternoon. Houston came to Nissan Stadium without a win and left with a 26-3 victory. Tennessee kicked a field goal on its opening drive and never scored again. Over its next five drives, the offense produced two first downs, two turnovers and two three-and-outs.

Week 5 vs. Houston

187
Total yards
Season low
3.2
Yards per play
58 plays
4 of 11
Third downs
4
Sacks allowed
40 yards lost
2
Turnovers
INT + fumble
Source: statsniper and FantasyData box scores; NFL.com

Will Anderson Jr. had three of Houston's four sacks. Cam Ward finished 23 of 36 for 170 yards, no touchdowns, one interception and a 63.4 passer rating. Next Gen Stats, as reported by CBS Sports, had him pressured on 21 dropbacks. On those plays he went 9 of 16 for 70 yards.

It was the first game this season in which Tennessee did not score a touchdown. No early-down success, no protection, no way to stay on schedule. Everything that had been leaking for four weeks broke at once.

Cam Ward

It would be easy to put all of this on the quarterback. The numbers don't allow it, in either direction.

Cam Ward · Weeks 1-5

63.2%
Completions
98 of 155
896
Passing yards
5.8
Yards per attempt
3-3
TD-INT
77.2
Passer rating
Source: Squawka, gambling.com and box scores; yards per attempt computed (896 / 155)

Those are not good numbers. Warren Sharp's figures, cited by Newsweek, have Ward at -0.20 EPA per play, 34th among qualified quarterbacks, and 35th in yards per attempt. CBS Sports had him at a league-low 2.6 yards per attempt under pressure through Week 4.

The same data cuts the other way, too. Sharp has Ward pressured on 30.9% of dropbacks, the ninth-lowest rate in the league. Pressure isn't arriving more often for Ward than for most quarterbacks. When it does arrive, the play is usually over. When it doesn't, the passing game still isn't creating much: against Houston he threw only two passes that traveled 10 or more yards in the air.

There are real positives. His Week 3 interception ended a franchise-record run of 208 straight passes without a pick. He has added two rushing touchdowns. And he is doing this in his second season, under his third head coach, with a new coordinator. After the Houston loss, Saleh confirmed Ward remains the starter.

The Offensive Line

Sacks alone undersell the problem. Tennessee has allowed 10, two per game. That is not a historic number.

The win rates are worse. ESPN's pass-block win rate, as compiled by NFL Lines through Week 5, has the Titans at 42%, 29th in the league. That doesn't contradict Ward's low pressure rate: pressure rate measures how often the quarterback was ultimately pressured, while pass-block win rate measures whether blockers sustain their assignments for the metric's required time window. Their run-block win rate is also 29th. The running game reflects it: 82.6 rushing yards per game, 27th.

Injuries made a thin spot thinner. Rookie right guard Fernando Carmona was hurt on the first offensive play in Week 3. His replacement, Jackson Slater, was also injured, and both went to injured reserve. Atonio Mafi has started at right guard since Week 4.

The combined effect shows up in the clock. Tennessee has run 273 offensive plays, fewest in the NFL, and holds the ball 24 minutes and 31 seconds per game, also last. An offense that can't block consistently can't sustain drives. An offense that can't sustain drives never builds the play volume to find a rhythm.

The Advanced Numbers

Through five games, nearly every broad offensive measure points the same way.

StatTitansRank / context
Points per game11.632nd
Total yards per game246.432nd
Yards per play4.5130th to 32nd (sources differ)
EPA per play-0.1931st
Success rate39.9%Bottom third
Third-down conversions35.6%21 of 59
Red-zone TD rate46.2%24th

EPA, expected points added, measures how much each play changes a team's expected scoring from that down, distance and field position. It is a better gauge than yards because it credits a conversion on third-and-8 and punishes a 4-yard gain on third-and-6. Sumer Sports has Tennessee at -0.19 EPA per play, 31st. Only the Chargers were lower.

Where the offense ranks

OutpriceTheBook · Analysis

Where Tennessee's offense ranks after five games

  • Points per game11.6 · 32nd
  • Total yards per game246.4 · 32nd
  • EPA per play-0.19 · 31st
    Sumer Sports, updated Oct 15 (tied with PHI at -0.19)
  • Yards per play4.51 · 30th
    Legz ranks it 30th; SI lists it last
  • Pass-block win rate42% · 29th
    ESPN, compiled by NFL Lines, through Week 5
  • Red-zone TD rate46.2% · 24th

← 32nd1st →

Source: Sumer Sports; Legz; Squawka; Newsweek; NFL Lines (ESPN win rates); SI

The split matters. Sumer has the passing game at -0.27 EPA per dropback and the running game at -0.08 per rush. Running the ball has been poor. Throwing it has been the larger drain.

The Defense

On the surface, the defense has been fine. Tennessee allows 21.8 points per game, tied for 10th-fewest, and 331.8 yards per game, 19th. All 10 touchdowns it has allowed came from opposing offenses. There have been no return or defensive scores against it.

Underneath, it is less comfortable. Sumer has the defense allowing +0.03 EPA per play, 25th, with opponents succeeding on 43.9% of plays. Against the pass it has been worse than against the run. A second model, covering Weeks 2-5 only, ranks the same defense 15th. That gap is a reminder that five games is a small sample.

Offense / defense split

OutpriceTheBook · Analysis

The scoreboard hides two different units

Offense

Points per game32nd
11.6
EPA per play31st
-0.19
Yards per play
4.51
Third-down rate
35.6%
Giveaways
7

Defense

Points allowed per gameT-10th fewest
21.8
EPA per play allowed25th
+0.03
Yards allowed per game19th
331.8
Opponent third-down rate15th
38.5%
Takeaways
2
Source: Fox Sports defensive rankings (Oct 13); Sumer Sports (Oct 15); Squawka

The honest answer is both. The defense held the Giants without a touchdown and kept Baltimore scoreless after halftime. It also gave up 49 points in second quarters. And it has worked behind an offense that ranks last in time of possession. Per play, the defense has been below average. On the scoreboard, it has been respectable despite the extra snaps an offense like this creates. Both are true, and neither is the main problem.

Robert Saleh and the Coaching

Saleh was hired in January on a five-year deal, after a season as the 49ers' defensive coordinator and an earlier stint as the Jets' head coach. Brian Daboll runs the offense as coordinator. Five games into a new staff is too early for a verdict, and this isn't one.

It is fair to separate what the staff controls from what it doesn't:

  • Roster limits. Two right guards on injured reserve by Week 4 is not a scheme problem.
  • Execution. Four lost fumbles in five games, none by the quarterback and two on kick returns.
  • Scheme. Sumer measures the offense's average depth of target at 7.0 yards. The passing game doesn't stretch defenses, and against Houston it barely tried.
  • Game management. Three points in second quarters all season means Tennessee is routinely playing from behind, which takes the run game away.
  • Development. Keeping Ward in the lineup through 0-5 is a statement that his growth is the priority.

The defense, Saleh's specialty, has looked closer to league average than the offense. That points the first question at the offensive plan and personnel, not the head coach's side of the ball.

Front Office and Roster Construction

General manager Mike Borgonzi's biggest offseason swings were at receiver. Tennessee signed Wan'Dale Robinson to a four-year, $78 million deal and drafted Carnell Tate fourth overall. The defense added John Franklin-Myers, Alontae Taylor and Cor'Dale Flott. The interior line got smaller additions, and the first injuries exposed the depth behind them.

That is the core of the problem. Weapons don't help a quarterback who is under pressure before routes develop, or an offense that can't stay on schedule to reach second-and-short. The rebuild around Ward has so far bought targets more than protection.

The timeline matters too. Ward is in his second season. Tennessee is on its third head coach in that span, and it has not won a game under this staff.

The Betting Angle

This is where most takes go wrong. "The Titans are bad" is an opinion about a team. A bet is an opinion about a price.

The market has already done a lot of the work. Tennessee is 2-3 against the spread. It covered as a 7-point underdog against Philadelphia and as an 11.5-point underdog at Baltimore, losing both outright. Four of its five games went under, but the totals were already low: the Houston game's was 37.5 (Fox Sports). Going into Week 6, DraftKings listed Tennessee as a 7-point underdog at Indianapolis (SI, Oct 13). That is the market adjusting, not lagging.

Price over prediction

OutpriceTheBook · Analysis

Team quality and price are different questions

Bad team · price already reflects it

No edge. Being right about the team earns nothing.

Bad team · price over-corrects

Value can flip to the bad team's side of the number.

Bad team · price still too generous

Fading them can be value — only if your number says so.

Any team · no number of your own

No bet. An opinion without a price is not an edge.

Being right that a team is bad earns nothing once the price already says so.

A few principles apply:

  • Betting against a bad team stops being value when the number catches up. The worse a team looks, the more points you lay to fade it. At some line the fade is no longer cheap.
  • ATS records describe prices, not teams. A 2-3 ATS record does not show an automatic edge in fading Tennessee. The market can price a bad team correctly, or even overprice how bad it is.
  • Unders need a number too. A weak offense is already in the total. An under is only value if your projection is lower than the market's.
  • Narratives move lines. 0-5 headlines can inflate a price past what the underlying numbers support, in either direction.

The tools for this are the same ones in our fair-line guide, EV guide and pre-bet checklist. Build a number first. Then compare it to the price.

Signs of Improvement

This isn't a team without assets.

  • Carnell Tate. Nine catches for 145 yards in Baltimore, the most receiving yards in a game by a Titan since A.J. Brown also had 145 in 2021.
  • Ward's floor. A record ball-security streak, two rushing touchdowns, and a pressure rate that is lower than most quarterbacks'. The pieces of a functional passer are there.
  • The defense. Points allowed are mid-pack despite little help from the offense. A defense that held the Giants without a touchdown can keep games playable.
  • Health. Getting the right-guard spot stable, whether through returns from injured reserve or a better fit, would help both the run game and Ward.
  • Continuity. A new staff and a young quarterback usually look worse in September than in November. The bye comes in Week 9.

None of that changes the first five games. It does mean the next five deserve a fresh look rather than a copy of the first.

The Final Word

The Titans aren't 0-5 because of a few bad bounces. They are 0-5 because the offense ranks at or near the bottom of the league in points, yards, efficiency and play volume. The close losses don't change that: one was decided in the final seconds, and the other two were games Tennessee spent chasing.

That doesn't mean Tennessee will never be good. It means the first five games were worse underneath than the record alone suggests, and rebuilding this offense around Cam Ward is a much bigger job than one position.

For bettors, the lesson is the one we keep coming back to: a team can be terrible and still be the wrong side to bet against. Price over prediction.

Sources & data windows